Visitor Commentary: Post Elections Analysis

From:
To: libpatriot@verizon.net
Sent: Thursday, December 01, 2005 6:33 AM
Subject: RE: POST ELECTIONS BLUES & TRANSITION: Say it ain't so George!

Greetings, Brother Tukpah:

You are very correct in you analyses.

Now that the Liberia 2005 General Elections end game is imminent, I too have been reviewing various strategic elements of these elections. Please permit me to share my observations with you.

This election was won or lost on the presence or absence of strategic intelligence, humble awareness, and proactive diligence. Also, Mrs Sirleaf's experience led her to be a hungry lion, but Mr Weah's inexperience led him to be bluff boy.

During December 2004 while visiting Washington DC, I met with Mr Sylvester Williams from the CDC camp and advised that CDC's victory in the Presidential elections would be the result of research and knowledge of the lay of the new political landscape of Liberia which now includes the international community as the most significant resource provider. Obviously, my advice was not heeded.

On the other hand, my advice to Mrs Sirleaf in January 2005, while sitting in the Monrovia offices of the Governance Reform Commission, was that she had to stick to her quest like white on rice - to not give up like she did at the 2003 Accra Peace Talks - that she had to widen, deepen and strengthen her network - that she create and derive relevance from Liberians especially in the United States. I explained that if she stood strong for her challenge then people from unexpected corners would stand for her. I am honored that she heard my advice.

It should be noted that there was significant impact on local government operations, in coordination of electoral responsibilities and security as well as in the selection of poll workers, by the newly organized District Development Committees in counties such as Bong, Lofa, Gbarpolu, Nimba, Bomi and Margibi. These DDCs have been funded by USAID and UN.

Another significant and influencing element was the Liberian-UNMIL Staff - particularly those serving as Human Rights Officers conducting voter education. Interestingly, the Liberian-UNMIL Staff met with the SRSG Mr Alan Doss just after the first-round and received guarantees as to the permanance of their jobs regardless of which candidate would prevail in the runoff. The Liberian-UNMIL Staff also received assurances of the UN's presence in Liberia until at least 2008.

Mrs Sirleaf and key UP operatives are in close liaison with the over 160 Civil Affairs Officers distributed throughout Liberia. These are key persons with extremely significant advisory clout. I believe that this is where the difference was brought to bear during the interval between the first and run-off rounds. None of the Civil Affairs Officers were adequately engaged by CDC.

A little known issue is that just after the first round ended, the USA provided "voter education" funding which was linked to how CDC or UP would participate in the debates program. When CDC rejected debates, the funding for "voters education" was unilaterally distributed by elements favorable to debates! (Read between the lines!). In short, the final result of these elections may be hinged on USD400,000 provided by the USA!

Another aspect of these elections may well be the role played by the combination of the Christian churches and the Poro in reaction to Islamic interests and the "sinners" (ie, non Poro such the Krahn).

Over a year ago, several UN and EU Civil Affairs Officers spoke of the 2005 elections as "Breaking with the past". Perhaps some of these UN and EU officers would have preferred Mr Weah to be President, because they felt they gave Mr Weah "standing" by having appointed him a Goodwill Ambassador. These UN and EU officers may now be embarrassed that Mrs Sirleaf's campaign staff bested them! We should hope that there is little bad blood between Mrs Sirleaf and some of these UN/EU senior officers assigned to Liberia.

Perhaps it is timely for us to know that the assignment of new US Ambassador Donald E. Booth may have been the best thing for Mrs Sirleaf and his presence in Liberia may have also encouraged various personnel on the USAID-funded District Development Committees throughout Liberia to work on behalf of Mrs Sirleaf in the "voter education" programs. We know that Ambassador Booth is no stranger to Liberia having served as Commercial Officer at the USEmbassy/Monrovia from 1979 to 1981. During that time, among other portfolios, Mrs Sirleaf was President William Tolbert's Deputy Minister of Finance. Interestingly, Mr Booth was the USEmbassy/Monrovia contact to whom President Tolbert directed me to deliver the written outlines for the next government of Liberia after the Tolbert Administration. (I did so late 1980 after I was released from the BTC Post Stockade and still have a copy of the document.)

Ambassador Donald Booth's presence may confirm that the United States 1980 effort to widen political opportunity in Liberia has run its course, an instance which the UN/EU will go along with the USA because - as General Klein has been apt to say - "money talks, bullshit walks, and we know who has the money" (meaning the USA!).

Best regards,

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PAX ET BONUM
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